ANALYST: NEXT YEAR WILL BE “UNIQUE AND CRITICAL” FOR UKRAINE02.01.2019
According to experts, the main political results of this year are economic stabilization, the failure of the fight against corruption and the definition of the circle of candidates for the presidency.
The expert summed up the results of 2018 / photo UNIAN
Next year, there is a danger of severe political conflicts, which could lead to the weakening of the state in connection with the two election campaigns, presidential and parliamentary, which for the first time in the history of the country will be held in one year.
This was at a press conference in UNIAN “Results of 2018 in the field of politics, Economics, defense, medicine, religion: achievements, losses, victories” said the Director of the Ukrainian Institute of analysis and management Ruslan Bortnik.
He noted that a certain economic and political stabilization is a feature of 2018. “Economic growth in 2% -3% is not growth, but not a fall, as it was in 2014-2015, when the economy collapsed. Worse to live did not, but better, unfortunately, no, ” – said the expert.
He also added that it takes about 15 years to reach the level of 2013 with the current growth rate.
According to the expert, political stabilization this year is obvious. Many negative forecasts of last year, such as the collapse of the coalition, the new government, did not come true. “We have seen successful voting on the budget, on the CEC, on other key issues,” he stressed.
“However, in this stabilization there is a minus — the defeat of protest activity, from the expulsion of Saakashvili to the murder of Catherine Gandzyuk. The protest core, potentially dangerous for the authorities, is under pressure, ” the political scientist said.
The second result, he said, is a loss in the fight against corruption. The conflict of the National anti-corruption Bureau of Ukraine and the Specialized anti-corruption Prosecutor’s office, the absence of the Supreme anti-corruption court became a marker of this loss.
“The situation with the” wear” of the country summed up all this fight against corruption, ” the expert said. We will remind, according to the investigation, Roman Nasirov in 2015-2016, acting in the interests of the people’s Deputy Alexander Onishchenko, initiated unjustified decisions on the installment of tax debt to three companies, which caused damage to the state in the amount of almost 2 billion UAH. The Cabinet of Ministers on March 3, 2017 dismissed Nasirov from the duties of the Chairman of the SFS for the duration of the investigation, and on January 31, 2018 dismissed him from this post. On December 11, the District administrative court of Kiev found illegal the decision, which Nasirov was dismissed from the post of Chairman of the SFS.
According to Bortnik, the third political result is the passing of active primaries this year, “which gives grounds to talk about the pool of presidential candidates.”
According to the political scientist, they can be divided into four categories. The first of them are candidates who really fight for the position. It is the leader of ” Batkivshchyna “Yulia Tymoshenko, the acting President Petro Poroshenko, the cofounder of “Studio” Quarter 95 “Vladimir Zelensky, the leader of” Civil position ” Anatoly Gritsenko. Another 10 candidates, according to the expert, will compete for seats in the Parliament through participation in the presidential elections. Among them, the expert called the leader of the Radical party Oleg Lyashko, Chairman of the party “Union” Samopomich ” Andrei Sadovoi and Chairman of the “Freedom” Oleg Tyagnibok.
The expert notes that there is also a group that will run to “amuse their self-esteem or exchange their result for a seat in Parliament for themselves”, there is still a group of technical candidates who will attack the “top” candidates and trade places in election commissions.
Also, according to the expert, in 2018 there were three points of growth: agriculture, investments from remittances of labor migrants in the amount of about 11 billion dollars. and energy.
In addition, Bortnik believes that next year will be “unique and crucial” for Ukraine: for the first time parliamentary and presidential elections will be held in one year, which threatens with numerous political conflicts and weakening of the state system.
The expert stressed that the main task for citizens will be to reach a social consensus to determine the “rules of the game” on the basis of the Constitution and laws and not to allow “to break the country and society through the external influence of both the West and Russia.”
In turn, the doctor of economic Sciences, candidate of medical Sciences Anatolіі Peshko, speaking about the presidential election campaign, which starts in a few days, said that the current President is waiting for “total failure”. The expert is convinced that in order to prevent the failure of the Poroshenko may resort to “total fraud, or the intensification of the conflict with Russia”.